Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Darwin Anariba, and I'm a student from Connecticut. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I want to explain why I think theyre valuable and why the CFTC should focus on smart regulation instead of heavy restrictions.
As a student, Ive found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for learning about the world. Trading on Kalshi isnt just a game to me; its a way to engage with real events, do research, and make informed decisions. Its not gambling at all. It takes skill and judgment, much like investing in stocks or other financial markets. Im often predicting outcomes on economic data or political events, and the prices I see on the platform give me insights I cant find in news articles or polls. This isnt just useful for me; it helps everyone by creating better information for society. I also believe that allowing regular people like me to participate makes the system fairer. If only big institutions could trade, theyd hoard all the good data.
Im really glad platforms like Kalshi are regulated under the CFTC. Honestly, I love using it and have no complaints about the platform itself. But I know not all markets out there are safe. Unregulated offshore platforms are a real risk, and if the CFTC cracks down too hard on legitimate markets, people will just turn to those sketchy alternatives. Regulation keeps us protected, and Id rather trade on a platform I trust than take my chances elsewhere.
That said, I do worry about bad actors. Insider trading is a serious problem, and I think people who do it should face harsh consequences. Same goes for anyone spreading misinformation to manipulate prices; they should be banned outright. But the answer isnt to shut down prediction markets. These issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has the power to enforce the rules. Punish the wrongdoers, not the rest of us. In response to your questions on inside information, like Question 29, I believe informed traders can help make prices more accurate, but only if the rules against insider trading are strictly enforced.
I also want to address Question 15 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. Prediction markets serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or discovering prices. Theyre not slot machines, and treating them as gambling would be a mistake.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi safe and accessible for people like me who use them responsibly. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Darwin Anariba
