Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ashton Swiney, and I'm a student from Tennessee. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me and for society as a whole. I strongly support regulating these markets in a balanced way, rather than banning or over-restricting them.
As a student, I often find myself digging into complex topics, whether for a class or just to understand the world better. Prediction markets have been a unique tool for me. They give insights you can't get from news or polls. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts are often more accurate than what pundits or surveys predict. This isn't just helpful for traders; its valuable information for anyone making decisions, whether you're a student like me, a business owner, or even a policymaker. I think the CFTC should recognize this public benefit when considering regulations, especially in response to Questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation and public interest.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like providing better information and helping people manage uncertainty. I've used these markets to think through potential outcomes of events that could impact my future, like policy changes affecting student loans or job markets. Labeling this as "gaming" feels wrong when it takes research and judgment, just like any other investment. I hope the CFTC considers this distinction seriously when looking at Questions 15 and 16 about defining gaming versus legitimate market activity.
Another concern I have is what happens if these markets are over-restricted or banned. Platforms like Kalshi, which are regulated under the CFTC, offer a safe and transparent way to participate. If rules become too tight, people will just turn to unregulated offshore sites, which are far riskier and harder to monitor. Plus, the United States should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on something with so much potential. I think this ties directly to Questions 23 and 24 about how and when the CFTC makes public interest determinations for these contracts.
I'm not blind to the risks. I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading. But those are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to address them. Shutting down or overly limiting prediction markets punishes everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. Instead, I urge you to focus on targeted rules that address specific problems without killing the benefits.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I encourage the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, ensuring they remain accessible, safe, and innovative under your oversight.
Sincerely,
Ashton Swiney
