Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Daniel Roark, and I'm a trader and investor based in Virginia. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique value to individuals like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that allow these markets to thrive without overly restrictive barriers.
I've been trading on prediction markets for a while now, focusing on events like elections, economic indicators, and other public outcomes. What draws me to these markets is the access to information you just can't find elsewhere. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts often outshine polls or pundits. For instance, during the last election cycle, the odds on Kalshi gave me a clearer picture of likely outcomes than any news outlet or survey. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders like me; it's valuable for anyone trying to make sense of the world, from business owners to everyday citizens. If these markets are regulated properly, they can keep providing better data for public decision-making and price discovery.
I also want to stress that regulated markets are the way to go. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, offer transparency and accountability that unregulated offshore sites like Polymarket can't match. If the CFTC imposes rules that are too harsh or bans certain contracts outright, it won't stop trading. It will just push people like me to less safe, offshore platforms where theres no protection against fraud or manipulation. Id much rather trade in a market where I know the rules are enforced and my interests are safeguarded.
On some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address Question 7 under Public Interest. I believe prediction markets serve the public good by aggregating information efficiently and offering forecasts that help everyone, not just traders. As for Question 29 on inside information, I think the CFTC already has tools to tackle insider trading or manipulation. The focus should be on enforcing those existing laws, not restricting entire markets because of a few bad actors.
I'm not saying there aren't risks. I get that some worry about manipulation or uninformed traders. But those issues exist in every financial market, from stocks to commodities, and we don't shut those down. The answer is targeted oversight, not broad bans. Prediction markets aren't gambling; they require research and judgment, just like any other investment.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to operate legally and safely in the US. Let's not over-restrict or ban these valuable tools. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Daniel Roark
