Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Darren Swink, and I'm a small business owner based in Colorado. I run a local retail store, and like many business owners, Im always looking for better information to make decisions that affect my livelihood. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I support well-regulated prediction markets and believe the CFTC should focus on proportionate rules rather than bans or overly restrictive policies.
Ive used prediction markets a few times to get a sense of where things like economic policies or election outcomes might be headed. The information Ive gained from these platforms has been invaluable. Unlike polls or news pundits, prediction market prices seem to cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of whats likely to happen. This isnt just helpful for me; I think its a public good. When regular folks like me can access this kind of aggregated insight, it levels the playing field. Were not stuck relying on big institutions or insiders for forecasts. It helps me plan for potential tax changes or regulatory shifts that could impact my store.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading in these markets. Those are real issues, but I dont think the answer is to shut down or over-restrict prediction markets. The CFTC already has tools to address fraud and manipulation in other markets, and those can be applied here too. Banning or heavily restricting these platforms would likely just push activity offshore to unregulated spaces where theres even less oversight. That doesnt protect anyone. It just takes away a useful tool from people like me while letting the bad actors find other ways to operate. Id rather see the U.S. lead on this innovation with sensible rules than cede it to other countries with looser standards.
I noticed in your questions, particularly in Topic B on Public Interest (Questions 7-14), that youre asking about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think the balance tips toward allowing prediction markets with clear guardrails. And in Topic C (Questions 15-22) on listed activities, I hope youll avoid broad categorical bans that could stifle legitimate uses for price discovery. Focus on specific risks instead.
Prediction markets arent perfect, but theyre a tool that helps people like me make better decisions. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible and safe without driving them underground or out of the country. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Darren Swink
