Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ian Cheshire, and I'm a trader and investor from Pennsylvania. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I've even made a small income from it. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets and want to share why I think the CFTC should craft rules that encourage their growth rather than restrict them.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information thats just not available anywhere else. Whether its forecasting election outcomes or other public events, the prices on these platforms have consistently been more accurate than polls or pundits. This isnt just helpful for traders like me, its valuable for the public, media, and even policymakers who need better data to make decisions. Ive used Kalshi to get a clearer picture of what might happen in elections, and that kind of price discovery benefits everyone, not just those of us in the market.
I also believe that allowing regular people like me to participate in these markets is a good thing. Its not gambling, its about research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. And while I appreciate that Polymarkets restrictions on US citizens are easy to bypass, Id much rather trade on a US-regulated exchange like Kalshi where theres oversight and consumer protection. Banning or over-restricting these markets would only push activity offshore to less safe platforms, which helps no one.
Im aware of concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has strong tools to address those issues. I dont see why entire markets should be shut down over the actions of a few bad actors. Its like closing the stock market because of insider trading scandals. Instead, I think proportionate, targeted rules are the way to go. Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area E (Questions 29-32) about inside information, I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery and helps make markets more accurate for everyone. The focus should be on enforcing existing laws against misuse of nonpublic information, not broad bans.
I also worry about US competitiveness in financial innovation, as raised in Topic Area B (Questions 7-14). If we over-regulate, we risk losing ground to other countries that embrace these markets. Lets lead the way with smart regulation instead.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with rules that address specific risks without stifling their potential. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to traders like me, and ensure the US remains a leader in this space. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Ian Cheshire
