Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chad Celestres, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets myself, but I strongly support their existence under fair and sensible regulation by the CFTC. I believe these markets offer unique value to people like me, and I want to make sure my voice is heard.
Ive always believed in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets, from what Ive learned, arent just a game or a gamble. They serve real economic purposes, like helping people understand the likelihood of events and even hedge against risks that affect their lives. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong to me. Its not like pulling a slot machine lever. It takes research and thought, much like investing in stocks. I think the CFTC should recognize this distinction when considering how to define these contracts under questions 15 through 22 in the ANPR.
Im also impressed by the academic research behind prediction markets. Studies show theyre often more accurate than polls or expert opinions when it comes to forecasting events. That kind of data transparency is valuable to everyone, not just traders. It helps regular people like me make sense of a complicated world. I urge the CFTC to consider this public benefit under questions 7 to 14 about balancing innovation and consumer protection.
Heres my biggest concern, though. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, it wont stop people from participating. Itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Id much rather see a market like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC rules, thrive in the U.S. than have folks turn to shady foreign sites. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. I think this ties directly to the public interest considerations in the ANPR.
I also want to point out that the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation and insider trading. Theres no need to reinvent the wheel or slap on heavy-handed bans. Just use whats already in place to keep things fair. Banning entire markets to stop a few bad actors punishes regular folks like me who just want to engage in a legal, transparent system.
Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or over-restrict them. Craft rules that address specific risks while allowing these markets to grow and benefit society. Thank you for taking the time to read my comment.
Sincerely,
Chad Celestres
