Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Michelle Crise, and I'm a regular citizen from Pennsylvania writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
I got into trading on prediction markets because I wanted a way to hedge against uncertainties that affect my life. For example, I run a small side business selling handmade goods online, and election outcomes or new trade policies can directly impact my shipping costs or taxes. Being able to trade event contracts on a regulated platform like Kalshi lets me offset some of that financial risk. It's not gambling to me; it's a practical tool, just like buying insurance or investing in stocks to protect my future. I believe many others, from small business owners to everyday folks worried about inflation or interest rates, could benefit from this kind of hedging if these markets are allowed to grow under fair rules.
What worries me is the idea of banning or overly restricting prediction markets. I've seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and they're a lot riskier. No oversight, no consumer protections, just a black box. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me won't stop looking for ways to hedge our risks; we'll just get pushed to those unsafe alternatives. Regulated markets like Kalshi are transparent, accountable, and based right here in the US. I think the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading, as you've shown with other derivatives markets. Use those tools, don't throw out the whole concept.
I also believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. Why let other countries take the lead on something that can create jobs, improve forecasting, and help regular people manage uncertainty? I've read about academic studies showing how prediction markets aggregate information better than polls or pundits. That data transparency is valuable to everyone, not just traders. In response to some of your questions, like numbers 7 and 8 under Public Interest, I think the benefits of innovation and price discovery far outweigh the risks if you regulate smartly. And for question 29 on inside information, I trust that enforcing existing laws against insider trading is a better answer than broad bans.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while letting law-abiding citizens like me participate in legal, regulated markets. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Michelle Crise
