Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tyler Fritz, and I'm just a regular guy from Wisconsin who wants to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not a lawyer or a finance expert, just someone who has been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now. I believe prediction markets are incredibly valuable, and I hope the CFTC will regulate them in a fair and balanced way rather than imposing heavy-handed restrictions.
I've found prediction markets to be a unique source of information that I can't get anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator like a CPI report, the prices on these markets often seem more accurate than what I hear from pundits or read in polls. That kind of insight isn't just helpful for traders like me, it's useful for everyone. It helps regular people, journalists, and even policymakers make sense of what's likely to happen. I think that's a public good worth protecting.
What I appreciate most is how these markets let someone like me participate. I'm not a big Wall Street player, but I can still research, analyze, and make informed trades based on real-world events. This isn't gambling, it's a process of learning and judgment, much like investing in stocks. Shutting down or over-restricting these markets would cut off everyday folks like me and leave the benefits of this information to the big institutions. That doesn't seem fair.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or market manipulation. I get that. Those are real issues. But banning entire categories of contracts or making it impossible for platforms to operate isn't the answer. The CFTC already has tools to go after bad actors, and laws already prohibit federal employees from trading on inside information. Use those tools. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks rather than broad prohibitions that punish everyone. I'm particularly drawn to questions 7 and 33 in your ANPR, about balancing innovation with consumer protection and how to classify these contracts. I think the answer lies in proportionate regulation that lets innovation thrive while cracking down on actual wrongdoing.
Prediction markets have given me a way to engage with the world in a meaningful way, and they've improved how I understand complex issues. I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with clear, fair rules that address risks without stifling the benefits. Don't let broad bans or overly restrictive policies shut down something so useful to people like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Tyler Fritz
