Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Amit Kumar Kumar, and I'm writing to you from California regarding the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm an active trader on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to society, and I want to share my perspective as someone who uses these markets regularly.
I've always been interested in public events, especially elections and major policy decisions that affect our lives here in California and beyond. What draws me to prediction markets is how they cut through the noise of pundits and polls. I've seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms often predict outcomes more accurately than traditional forecasts. For example, during the last election cycle, I followed both the polls and the market odds on Kalshi, and the market was consistently closer to the final result. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders like me; it's valuable for anyone trying to understand what's really happening, from journalists to everyday citizens.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get why those are serious issues. But I don't think the answer is to ban or overly restrict prediction markets. The CFTC already has rules and tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other markets, and those can be applied here too. Shutting down these platforms would just push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which is worse for everyone. Plus, insider trading laws already apply to federal employees and others with nonpublic information. Let's enforce what's on the books rather than punish regular users like me.
I'm particularly interested in some of the questions you raised in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection and Question 11 on the public benefits of price discovery. I think prediction markets are a powerful tool for aggregating information, and they democratize access to insights that would otherwise be locked away with big institutions. Letting regular people participate makes the forecasts sharper and fairer.
I also want to push back on the idea that this is just gambling. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, no different from trading stocks or commodities. It's about understanding the world, not rolling dice. The hedging potential is real too. I've used these markets to offset risks tied to election outcomes that could impact my financial planning.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while preserving the benefits for people like me who rely on these tools for better information. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Amit Kumar Kumar
