Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joseph Munson, and I'm a regular citizen from Utah writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value, not just to me, but to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
I've found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for getting information that I can't find anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or some other public event, the prices on these platforms often cut through the noise of polls and pundits. I've seen firsthand how they can be more accurate, like during the last election cycle when the market odds on Kalshi were closer to the final result than any poll I read. That kind of forecasting power isn't just helpful for traders like me, its useful for journalists, policymakers, and anyone trying to make sense of the world. Better information leads to better decisions, and I think that's a public good worth protecting.
I also want to stress that participating in these markets feels like a right, not a privilege that should be limited to big institutions. I'm no Wall Street insider, just a guy from Utah who reads up on current events and makes informed trades. Allowing everyday people like me to take part makes the market's predictions stronger because more perspectives are factored in. Plus, informed trading isn't a problem, it's a feature. When people bring real knowledge to the table, the prices get sharper, and that benefits everyone. I know there are concerns about insider trading, but those laws already exist. The CFTC has the power to go after bad actors without shutting down the whole market. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few doesn't seem fair.
As for the idea that event contracts are just gambling, I disagree. Trading on these markets takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks or futures. I'm not flipping a coin, I'm analyzing data and making decisions. Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the CFTC should weigh the clear benefits of price discovery and innovation against any risks. And for Topic E on inside information (Questions 29-32), I think the focus should be on enforcing existing laws rather than creating broad bans.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them, but instead create rules that address specific risks while letting these valuable tools continue to grow. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Joseph Munson
