Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Daniel Clark, and I'm just a regular citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive while protecting consumers.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about things like elections and other public events. Honestly, I've found the forecasts on these platforms to be way more accurate than what I see from polls or pundits on TV. That kind of insight isn't just helpful for me as a trader; its useful for anyone trying to make sense of the world, whether they're journalists, policymakers, or just curious folks. Plus, trading on these markets feels like a way to participate in something bigger. It's not gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, just like any other kind of investing.
One thing I really value is having the freedom to trade on legal, regulated platforms like Kalshi. I know there are offshore alternatives out there, but I'd much rather stick with a market that's under CFTC oversight. Regulation means consumer protection, transparency, and accountability. If the U.S. cracks down too hard, people like me might get pushed to less safe, unregulated sites. That seems like the opposite of what we want. I also think the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation. If we over-restrict these markets, other countries will step in and take the lead, and we'll miss out.
I'm aware of concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues. But I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to handle bad actors. Instead of broad bans, I think focusing on enforcing existing rules makes more sense. Also, when informed traders participate, it actually helps improve price discovery. That benefits everyone, not just the people trading. Ive read some of the academic research on this, like studies by economists who show how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. That data should be part of the conversation.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few from Topic B on Public Interest, especially Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think regulated markets strike that balance. And for Topic E on Inside Information, like Question 29, I believe informed trading often helps prices reflect reality better, as long as it's not based on illegal insider knowledge.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation for prediction markets. Please don't ban or overly restrict them. Let's keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the U.S.
Sincerely,
Daniel Clark
