Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Paul Bumblis, and I'm an everyday citizen from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they have real value for people like me when theyre properly regulated. Im glad the CFTC is taking a careful look at this issue, and I want to urge you to support a framework that allows these markets to operate with clear, fair rules.
Ive always been interested in elections and major public events, and Ive found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for cutting through the noise of polls and pundits. A few years back, during a tight election cycle, I checked platforms like Kalshi to get a sense of what might happen, and the prices there often felt more grounded than the endless speculation on TV. That kind of forecasting isnt just interesting, its practical. It helps regular folks like me make sense of whats coming, whether its a policy shift or a big economic event. Beyond that, I think these markets can help people and businesses hedge real risks. For example, if an election outcome could affect tax laws or regulations that hit my wallet or a small business, having a way to offset that uncertainty is valuable.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and Im not blind to those risks. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets, and I believe you can adapt them here without shutting down prediction markets altogether. Banning or over-restricting these platforms wont stop people from trading, itll just push them to unregulated offshore sites where theres no oversight at all. Id much rather see a regulated market like Kalshi, under the CFTCs watch, than have activity driven to sketchy corners of the internet with no consumer protection. This ties directly to questions 7 and 8 in your ANPR about balancing innovation with public interest. I think regulation, not prohibition, is the way to protect people while still letting these markets provide their benefits.
I also want to touch on question 29 regarding inside information. Yes, its a concern, but laws already exist to stop federal employees or others from trading on nonpublic info. Enforce those rules instead of punishing everyone by limiting access to these markets.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to develop proportionate regulations for prediction markets that address specific risks without banning or overly restricting them. Lets keep these markets safe and accessible for everyday people like me, under your oversight, rather than driving them offshore. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Paul Bumblis
