Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aidan Bloomstine, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
As someone who trades on prediction markets, I've seen firsthand how they offer insights you just can't get elsewhere. For elections and other public events, the prices often cut through the noise of polls and pundits, giving a clearer picture of what might happen. This isn't just helpful for traders; its useful for anyone trying to make sense of the world, whether you're a journalist, a policymaker, or just a curious person. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, I've placed trades tied to economic indicators like inflation data because Im worried about how rising costs affect my budget for rent and groceries. Its a practical tool, not a game.
I know there are concerns about things like manipulation or insider trading, and I get why thats a worry. But I truly believe the CFTC already has strong tools to handle these issues. Youve got broad authority to go after anyone trying to rig prices on regulated markets, and there are already laws in place stopping federal employees or officials from trading on nonpublic info. Shutting down or heavily restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like overkill to me. Itd be like closing the stock market over insider trading scandals. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few doesnt seem fair.
I also want to touch on some of the questions you raised in the ANPR, specifically around public interest and insider information, like in Questions 7 and 29. Prediction markets serve the public good by improving information and price discovery, and even informed traders can help make prices more accurate. The focus should be on enforcing existing rules, not banning whole categories of contracts. And on the point of hedging, as raised in Question 9, I can attest that these markets let regular folks like me manage real risks, much like traditional derivatives do for businesses.
Im just an everyday person, not an expert, but I think prediction markets are a net positive if theyre overseen properly. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without stifling innovation or blocking access for regular traders like me. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Aidan Bloomstine
