Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Qingchen Wang, and I'm a small business owner based in New York. I run a retail business here, dealing with the ups and downs of economic shifts and policy changes that impact my bottom line. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) because I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I want to share why I think theyre valuable and why the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation rather than bans or harsh restrictions.
I started trading on Kalshi a couple of years ago to get a better handle on risks that affect my business, like potential tariff changes or election outcomes that could shift consumer behavior. The information I get from prediction market prices is unlike anything else out there. Its not just guesses or polls, its real money on the line, and that makes the forecasts sharper. I believe this benefits everyone, not just traders like me. When informed people trade, the prices reflect better data, and that helps even non-traders who look at these numbers for insight. I think this ties directly to your questions in Topic E (Questions 29-32) about whether informed trading aids price discovery. From my experience, it absolutely does.
I also worry about what happens if these markets get over-restricted or banned. Ive seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and theyre a mess compared to a regulated space like Kalshi. Banning or heavily restricting prediction markets wont stop people from trading, itll just push us to less safe, less transparent places where theres no oversight. Id much rather trade in a market under CFTC rules where theres accountability. This connects to Topic B (Questions 7-14) on balancing innovation and consumer protection. Regulation, not prohibition, is the way to protect people like me.
Finally, I dont see event contracts as gambling, and I hope the CFTC doesnt either. Trading on these markets takes research and judgment, just like any other investment I make for my business. Its about managing risk, not rolling dice. I think this speaks to Topic C (Questions 15-22) on defining gaming versus legitimate markets. These contracts have a real economic purpose, whether Im hedging against a policy change or just trying to understand the odds of an event.
Im not saying there arent risks. I know insider trading or manipulation could be issues, but those are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to tackle them. Dont punish small business owners like me who use these markets responsibly by shutting them down. I urge you to support fair, proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible, safe, and under U.S. oversight.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Qingchen Wang
