Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is James Michaelis, and I'm a finance professional from Louisiana. I've been working in finance for years, analyzing trends and making calculated decisions based on the best information available. That's why I'm writing to you about the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share my perspective on why they matter to me and to the broader public.
I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, a CFTC-registered market, and I've seen firsthand how prediction markets provide unique insights you can't get from polls or pundits. Whether it's forecasting election outcomes or other major public events, these markets consistently outperform traditional methods. As someone who values data and accuracy, I believe this isn't just useful for traders like me, but for society at large. The smartest minds are the ones who can predict the future, and we shouldn't punish them by over-restricting or banning these markets.
I also want to stress that event contracts are not gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and hedging against uncertainty. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm using research and judgment, much like I do with stocks or other investments. Calling this "gaming" would be a disservice to the real value these markets provide. Plus, having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets is important to me. If only big institutions get access, the best information stays locked away from regular people like myself.
Addressing some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I believe the CFTC already has robust tools to handle concerns like manipulation and insider trading (relevant to Questions 1-6 on core principles and Questions 29-32 on inside information). These issues are already illegal, and the Commission should focus on enforcing existing rules rather than creating broad bans. Informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting everyone in the market. On the public interest front (Questions 7-14), regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore platforms. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets will just push activity to less secure venues, which helps no one.
Finally, the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We can't afford to cede this space to other countries (relevant to Question 7 on balancing innovation and protection). I've seen how prediction markets can democratize access to valuable information, and I want to see that continue under fair, proportionate rules.
I urge you to support the growth of regulated prediction markets. Don't let heavy-handed restrictions or outright bans stifle this promising tool for forecasting and economic participation. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
James Michaelis
