Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan Moran, and I'm a software engineer based in Georgia. Im writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who works in tech, I follow these markets closely for insights into public events, though I dont trade myself. I believe they offer unique value to society and deserve regulation that encourages innovation while protecting consumers.
Prediction markets stand out because they consistently produce more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. Ive seen this firsthand while tracking election outcomes and policy decisions online. The aggregated wisdom of many participants often cuts through noise and bias, giving clearer signals about what might happen. This isnt just useful for traders; its valuable for anyone making decisions, from businesses to everyday people like me trying to understand the world. I think this ties directly to your questions in Topic Area B (Questions 7-14) about public interest and price discovery. These markets arent just financial tools; theyre a public good for better information.
I also strongly believe event contracts shouldnt be lumped in with gambling or gaming, as discussed in Topic Area C (Questions 15-22). They serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or uncovering hard-to-get data. For example, as a tech professional, I see how a small business owner might use these markets to hedge against policy changes affecting their operations. This isnt a game; its a calculated way to manage uncertainty, much like trading stocks or futures. Labeling it as gaming risks misunderstanding its value.
Lastly, on the issue of inside information in Topic Area E (Questions 29-32), I think informed trading actually improves price discovery. When people with real knowledge participate, the market prices get sharper, benefiting everyone. Of course, outright insider trading is a concern, but thats already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to tackle it. Shutting down or over-restricting these markets to stop a few bad actors would be a mistake. It would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which is worse for consumer protection.
Prediction markets also keep the US competitive in financial innovation. As someone in tech, I know we cant afford to fall behind other countries on new ideas. Regulation should focus on safety and transparency, not broad bans. I urge you to craft rules that support proportionate oversight, allowing legal, regulated markets to thrive while addressing specific risks with targeted measures.
Thank you for considering my input. I hope the CFTC will champion prediction markets as a tool for better forecasting and economic utility.
Sincerely,
Ryan Moran
