Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mattias Blix, and I'm a student and academic from New Jersey. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I've seen firsthand how these markets provide unique value, and I believe the CFTC should regulate them proportionately rather than impose bans or overly restrictive rules.
Prediction markets aren't just a niche interest for me; they're a tool that offers insights I can't get elsewhere. As a student, I rely on accurate information to understand public events like elections, and I've found that platforms like Kalshi often predict outcomes better than polls or pundits. This isn't just useful for traders. It helps everyone, from journalists to policymakers, make sense of a noisy world. Beyond forecasting, these markets let me hedge personal financial risks tied to economic or political events, which feels especially important as a young person planning for an uncertain future.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, activity will just move to less transparent venues, which helps no one. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. On top of that, the academic in me sees immense value in the data and transparency these markets provide. Research has long shown prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, and stifling them would cut off a resource for studying how people assess real-world probabilities.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets serve a clear public good through price discovery and better decision-making. They aren't gambling; they have real economic purposes, like hedging and forecasting, as asked in Topic C (Questions 15-22). And on insider trading concerns from Topic E (Questions 29-32), I think informed trading actually improves price accuracy for everyone. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading. Use those instead of broad restrictions.
I get that there are risks, like potential misuse by a few bad actors. But banning or over-regulating prediction markets punishes the many for the actions of a few. The answer is targeted oversight, not sweeping prohibitions. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible, safe, and innovative for people like me who rely on them.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mattias Blix
