Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tyree Culver, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support the idea of regulating them in a fair and balanced way, rather than restricting or banning them outright.
I believe prediction markets offer something valuable that you can't get from polls or pundits. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and other public events often turn out more accurate than what you hear on TV or read online. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders like me; it's useful for everyone, from journalists to regular folks trying to make sense of the world. I also appreciate that these platforms, especially regulated ones like Kalshi, give people like me a chance to participate in a legal, transparent market. If we push these markets offshore by over-regulating or banning them, we'll lose that safety and oversight, and I think that's a step backward.
I'm no expert, but I've read up on some of the academic research about prediction markets. The data shows they do a great job of pulling together information from lots of different people, which makes their predictions sharper. To me, thats not gambling; its a real economic tool. It's about research and judgment, not luck. Plus, when informed traders participate, it improves the accuracy of the prices, and that benefits everyone involved. I think the US should be leading the way on this kind of financial innovation, not leaving it to other countries to figure out.
I also want to touch on a couple of the specific questions in your notice. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the answer is clear: we need proportionate rules that target specific risks like manipulation or insider trading, not broad bans that kill off the whole idea. And on Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe informed trading often helps price discovery, as long as its not illegal insider activity. The CFTC already has strong tools to go after manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Those same tools can work here without punishing everyone else by shutting down prediction markets.
I hope you'll consider my perspective as an ordinary person who sees real value in these markets. Please support fair, targeted regulation that lets prediction markets thrive under proper oversight, rather than imposing heavy restrictions or categorical bans. We can have both innovation and protection if we get this right.
Sincerely,
Tyree Culver
