Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Devin Darmody, and I'm just a regular citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I think they're honest and fair, and I'd like to explain why I believe the CFTC should regulate them proportionately without banning or over-restricting them.
I rely on prediction markets for insights that I can't get from polls or pundits. Honestly, I've found the forecasts on platforms like Kalshi to be way more accurate when it comes to elections and other public events. It's not just useful for me as a trader; I think it helps everyone by putting out better information. Whether it's figuring out the odds of a policy change or an election outcome, these markets cut through the noise. And I don't see this as gambling. It takes research and real judgment, just like any other kind of investing.
What I value most is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi are safe and transparent, unlike unregulated offshore sites where there's no oversight. If the CFTC bans or puts too many restrictions on prediction markets, people like me will get pushed to those shady platforms instead. That seems like the opposite of protecting consumers. I also believe informed trading makes the market better for everyone. When people with good information trade, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits all of us, not just a few big players.
I noticed some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 29 about whether informed traders help price discovery. My take is that innovation should be encouraged, and the CFTC already has strong tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading. There's no need for heavy-handed bans when you can target specific bad actors with the rules already in place. Shutting down these markets to stop a few problems would punish regular people like me who use them responsibly.
I hope you'll consider my perspective as an everyday trader. Prediction markets are valuable for accurate forecasting and giving regular folks a chance to participate. Please support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets legal and safe in the U.S., rather than pushing activity offshore with overly strict rules.
Sincerely,
Devin Darmody
