Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joshua Moniz, and I'm a student from Massachusetts with a strong interest in economics and finance. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive found these markets to be an incredible educational tool, and I believe they have real value for individuals and society.
Prediction markets arent just a niche interest for me; theyve been a gateway into understanding finance and economics. Unlike traditional markets, which can feel intimidating or out of reach for someone with limited resources or experience, platforms like Kalshi are accessible. Ive learned so much about risk, probability, and real-world events by researching and trading on outcomes like elections or economic indicators. This isnt gambling, as some might suggest. It takes serious thought and analysis, much like investing in stocks or commodities. These event contracts serve a real economic purpose by helping people like me hedge against uncertainty and engage with the world in a meaningful way. Im concerned that labeling them as "gaming" could unfairly restrict access to this tool.
I also believe the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban prediction markets, we risk pushing this activity to unregulated offshore platforms or ceding ground to other countries. Keeping these markets legal and regulated here ensures transparency and safety for participants like me. On a related note, I think informed trading actually improves price discovery. When people with knowledge participate, the market prices become more accurate, and that benefits everyone, not just traders. This ties into Question 29 from your ANPR about the role of informed traders, and I strongly believe their participation is a net positive.
That said, Im not blind to potential issues. Insider trading is a real concern for me, and Im open to targeted regulations to address it. But banning or overly restricting prediction markets isnt the answer. The CFTC already has tools to combat manipulation and insider trading in other markets, and I believe those can be adapted here without punishing regular participants. This relates to Questions 29-32 in the ANPR, and Id encourage the Commission to focus on enforcement rather than broad prohibitions.
In short, prediction markets are a valuable resource for learning, engagement, and economic utility. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that protects consumers while preserving access to these innovative tools. Lets keep the U.S. at the forefront of financial progress.
Sincerely,
Joshua Moniz
