Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eduardo Amaya Reyes, and I'm an everyday citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that encourage their growth while addressing real risks with targeted solutions.
As someone who follows elections and public events closely, Ive found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for getting information thats often more accurate than polls or pundits. The prices on these platforms reflect real-time collective wisdom, and that helps me make better decisions, whether its understanding political outcomes that could impact my taxes or economic events that affect my cost of living. Beyond my personal use, I think this kind of price discovery benefits everyone, from regular folks to policymakers who need solid data. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. Im not a gambler; Im doing research and using judgment, just like I would for any investment. Calling these event contracts "gaming" feels wrong to me, since they serve real economic purposes like hedging risks. For instance, Ive used markets to hedge against potential policy changes that could hit my budget hard.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. Platforms under CFTC oversight are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If prediction markets get banned or over-restricted, people wont just stop trading; theyll move to sketchy sites with no consumer protections. Id much rather see the US lead in financial innovation, setting a global standard for how to do this right, instead of ceding that space to other countries. Regulation should be proportionate, targeting specific issues like manipulation or insider trading, which are already illegal under existing laws. Broad categorical bans would punish honest participants like me. On the topic of informed trading, I believe it actually improves price discovery, helping everyone get better information, as long as its not based on illegal insider knowledge.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Questions 7 and 8 under Public Interest, I think prediction markets balance innovation and consumer protection when theyre regulated properly, as they are on designated contract markets. And on Question 15 under Listed Activities, I strongly feel event contracts shouldnt be classified as gaming since theyre about real-world outcomes and risk management, not chance. My ask is simple: please support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets thrive while tackling specific risks with focused rules. Dont ban or overly restrict them.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Eduardo Amaya Reyes
