Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jordan Genet, and I'm just a regular person from Indiana who has taken an interest in prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I want to share my thoughts because I believe these markets should be allowed to operate under fair regulation, not banned or overly restricted.
I've been actively trading on Kalshi for a while now, and I care about my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like this. Honestly, my experience with prediction markets started as a way to get an edge in sports betting on platforms like FanDuel. I'd check the percentages on Kalshi for certain outcomes, like a team or player prop, and notice they often leaned heavily one way, while FanDuel showed different odds. I'd bet against the heavy lean on Kalshi by placing money on the opposite side on FanDuel, and I've made a decent amount doing that. But here's the thing, I noticed Kalshi's predictions often didn't pan out. Even when their market showed a high percentage for one outcome, it frequently failed to match reality. That made me question their accuracy at first.
Still, after using it more, Ive come to see that prediction markets as a whole often produce better forecasts than polls or pundits on TV. Even if Kalshi isnt perfect in every case, the idea of aggregating what lots of people think through trading is powerful. Its information I cant get from just watching news or reading Twitter. As a regular citizen, I like having access to that kind of insight. It feels fair that everyday people like me can participate, not just big institutions or insiders. Banning or over-restricting these markets would cut me off from a tool that, at its best, helps me understand the world better.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But those things are already illegal, right? The CFTC has the power to go after bad actors without shutting down the whole market. Itd be unfair to punish people like me who are just trying to engage with these platforms legally. Plus, regulated markets are way safer than pushing this stuff offshore where theres no oversight at all. Im particularly interested in your questions 7 through 14 about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think the answer is clear: let us participate, but set rules that target specific risks without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
I hope youll support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban them or make it impossible for regular folks to take part. These markets have value, and with the right oversight, they can work for everyone.
Sincerely,
Jordan Genet
