Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is William Yuan, and I'm a student from California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to society. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation rather than overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
As a student, Ive found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for learning about the world. Trading on Kalshi has pushed me to research economic trends, election outcomes, and public events more deeply than I ever did before. Its not just a hobby; its a way to engage with real-world issues. Beyond my personal experience, Ive seen how these markets consistently outperform polls and pundits in forecasting events like elections. That kind of accurate information isnt just helpful to traders; it benefits the public, media, and even policymakers who need reliable data to make decisions.
I strongly believe event contracts are not gambling. They serve legitimate economic purposes, like price discovery and hedging against uncertainty. When I trade on outcomes like inflation rates or policy changes, Im using the same skills of analysis and judgment that investors use in stocks or commodities. Classifying this as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22, ignores the real value these markets provide. Informed trading, as raised in Questions 29-32, actually improves price discovery and makes the markets predictions more accurate for everyone.
Im also worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts these markets. Banning or heavily limiting prediction markets wont stop people from participating; itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no consumer protection. Regulated markets like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer. Addressing risks like manipulation or insider trading, as mentioned in Questions 1-6, should focus on targeted rules, not broad prohibitions. The existing laws against market manipulation and insider trading already provide a strong foundation to build on.
Finally, I think the US has a chance to lead in financial innovation here. If we stifle prediction markets, were ceding that leadership to other countries. As you consider the public interest in Questions 7-14, I hope youll weigh the benefits of innovation and democratic access against the risks, and choose a balanced path.
I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations that protect consumers while allowing prediction markets to thrive. These platforms offer unique information, encourage civic engagement, and give people like me a chance to participate in a legal, regulated space. Please dont shut down this opportunity.
Sincerely,
William Yuan
