Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Xavier Broadnax, and I'm a student from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been following prediction markets for a while now, even though I dont trade on them myself. Im fascinated by how they work and what they can tell us about the world, and I strongly support regulating them in a way that allows them to thrive while addressing valid concerns.
As a student, I spend a lot of time studying data and trends, especially around elections and major public events. Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets often get closer to the truth than polls or pundits. For instance, during the last election cycle, I noticed platforms like these were quicker to reflect shifts in voter sentiment than traditional surveys. That kind of real-time insight isnt just interesting to me as an academic, its valuable to everyone, from journalists to policymakers. Its information you cant find anywhere else, and I think thats worth protecting.
I also worry about the U.S. falling behind in financial innovation. Other countries are moving fast to embrace new ideas in markets and technology. If we over-regulate or ban prediction markets, we risk pushing this activity offshore to unregulated platforms, which helps no one. Instead, we should be leading the way with smart, balanced rules that keep these markets safe and accessible. I believe regulated markets are far better than driving people to sketchy alternatives.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to touch on Question 7 under Public Interest. I think prediction markets serve the public good by improving forecasting accuracy, and that outweighs the risks if we have proper oversight. On Question 15 under Listed Activities, Id argue these markets arent gambling. They take research and judgment, much like investing in stocks, and labeling them as gaming feels like a misstep. As for concerns about insider trading or manipulation, raised in Questions 29-32, I understand the worry. But those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce the law. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors seems like punishing everyone for the actions of a few.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Lets keep the U.S. at the forefront of innovation while ensuring these platforms are safe and fair for everyone.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Xavier Broadnax
