Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kathan Decker, and I'm just a regular citizen from Minnesota writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for getting information that I can't find anywhere else. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on Kalshi's forecasts to get a clearer picture of likely outcomes than what polls or news pundits were saying. Those market prices often turned out to be more accurate, and that helped me make better personal decisions, like planning for potential tax changes that could affect my budget. This isn't just helpful for traders; its valuable for anyone who wants better information about public events. I think this ties directly to your questions 7 and 8 in the ANPR about the public interest and price discovery benefits of these markets.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. I put time into researching and thinking about real-world events before trading, just like I would with any investment. Classifying this as "gaming" feels wrong when it serves real economic purposes, like hedging risks. For instance, I've used prediction markets to offset uncertainties around economic data releases that impact my costs of living. This relates to your questions 15 and 16 about defining gaming versus legitimate market activity, and I urge you to recognize the economic utility here.
I'm aware of concerns like manipulation or insider trading, but I don't think the answer is to ban or heavily restrict these markets. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle bad actors, and those should be used instead of punishing everyone. Plus, regulated platforms like Kalshi are much safer than unregulated offshore ones. If you over-restrict, people will just go to those less safe places, which helps no one. This connects to questions 29 through 32 on insider information and question 23 on public interest determinations. Targeted rules, not broad bans, are the way to go.
Finally, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. Let's not push this industry to other countries by over-regulating. Proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks while letting prediction markets grow is what Im asking for. They help with forecasting, hedging, and better decision-making for everyone, not just traders.
Thank you for considering my input. I hope youll support rules that allow prediction markets to operate under fair and balanced oversight.
Sincerely,
Kathan Decker
