Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Isa Jaffar-Ali, and I'm a software engineer based in Georgia working in the tech industry, specifically for a business that supports prediction markets. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I've used these markets personally a few times, and I see their value both as a participant and as someone whose livelihood depends on this innovative space.
Prediction markets aren't just a niche hobby; they provide unique information that you can't find in polls or from pundits. Time and again, they've proven more accurate in forecasting elections and major public events. That kind of insight helps everyone, from individuals making personal decisions to policymakers needing reliable data. As a tech professional, I also know how vital it is for the U.S. to stay competitive in financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, we risk pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than CFTC-registered entities like Kalshi. We should be leading this space, not ceding it to other countries.
I also want to stress that event contracts are not gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like helping individuals and businesses hedge against risks. Think of a small business owner betting on an election outcome that could impact taxes or regulations, or someone like me timing a major purchase based on a Fed rate decision. This isn't a game; it's a tool, much like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying these as "gaming" undercuts their legitimate value. Plus, informed trading in these markets actually improves price discovery, benefiting all participants with better data.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the CFTC can balance innovation with consumer protection by focusing on proportionate, targeted rules rather than broad bans. On Topic E regarding inside information (Questions 29-32), Id argue that the CFTC already has robust tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Use those tools here instead of punishing everyone with over-restrictions. Banning markets doesn't solve bad behavior; it just drives it underground.
Im not blind to the risks. Manipulation and insider trading are real concerns, but theyre already illegal, and the CFTC has the authority to act. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors is like closing the stock market over a handful of insider trades. Its not fair, and it hurts people like me who value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets.
I urge you to support prediction markets with thoughtful regulation that addresses specific risks without stifling this valuable tool. Lets keep the U.S. at the forefront of financial innovation and ensure regular people can access these markets safely.
Sincerely,
Isa Jaffar-Ali
