Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Gavin Dalglish, and I'm just a regular citizen from Missouri. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe theyre a valuable tool for people like me, and Id like to explain why I think the CFTC should support them with fair, proportionate rules instead of heavy restrictions or bans.
First off, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information you cant get anywhere else. The forecasts on these platforms are often more accurate than what you hear from polls or pundits on TV. Thats not just helpful for traders like me, its useful for everyone who wants a clearer picture of what might happen in politics, the economy, or even weather events. Also, I appreciate that these markets let regular folks like me participate. Its not just big institutions with all the resources, its a level playing field. I can trade at a price I think is fair, based on my own research and judgment, kind of like a stock exchange. Im not stuck accepting whatever odds a sportsbook throws at me, where theyre the ones raking in huge profits with their fancy models.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation. I get that. But those are already illegal, and the CFTC has the power to crack down on bad actors without shutting down the whole market. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets wont stop the bad stuff, itll just push people like me to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Id much rather trade on a regulated market like Kalshi, where there are rules and protections in place. Plus, I think informed trading actually makes the market better. When people bring real knowledge to the table, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits everyone.
I also want to say that these event contracts arent gambling in my view. Theyre about research and making informed calls on real-world events, just like trading stocks or commodities. Calling this gaming feels like a stretch. And honestly, the U.S. should be leading the way on financial innovation like this. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead while were stuck with outdated rules.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a couple. On Question 8, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets are the sweet spot. They let innovation happen while keeping traders safe. And on Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I believe event contracts have clear economic purposes like price discovery and hedging, not just entertainment.
Im asking the CFTC to support prediction markets with reasonable regulations that address specific risks without punishing everyday participants like me. Lets keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the U.S.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Gavin Dalglish
