Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Diosvani Lopez, and Im a resident of Texas who actively trades on prediction markets like Kalshi. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive while protecting participants.
As someone who follows public events closely, Ive found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for getting accurate information. Whether its an election or a major policy decision, the forecasts on platforms like Kalshi often beat polls or pundits by a wide margin. This isnt just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone, from regular folks to policymakers, make better decisions with clearer data. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive traded on election outcomes that could impact my taxes or local regulations affecting my day-to-day life. This isnt gambling. Its a practical way to manage uncertainty, much like buying insurance.
I believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, people wont stop trading; theyll just move to less secure platforms where theres no protection. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. I trust that the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. Instead of broad bans, I think focusing on enforcing those existing rules makes more sense.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a couple from the Public Interest section, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by allowing innovation while keeping oversight in place. Also, regarding Question 15 in the Listed Activities section about defining legitimate markets, I believe event contracts for elections or economic indicators are clearly useful for price discovery and hedging, not just gaming.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont impose blanket restrictions or bans that would push activity offshore or limit access for regular people like me. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while letting these valuable markets grow.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Diosvani Lopez
