Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joseph Masri, and Im a trader and investor based in New York. I run a small business that actively trades on prediction markets, particularly on platforms like Kalshi, where weve been able to access event contracts that were previously out of reach for us. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide immense value to individuals, businesses, and society as a whole.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information you cant get anywhere else. Their forecasts on elections and other public events consistently beat polls and pundits. This isnt just helpful for those of us trading; its valuable for everyone, from policymakers to regular citizens trying to make sense of the world. For my business, these markets also let us hedge real financial risks. Whether its an election outcome that could impact tax policies or a regulatory shift that might hit our bottom line, trading on these contracts helps us manage uncertainty in a way we couldnt before.
I want to be clear that this isnt gambling. Event contracts arent about luck; they require research, analysis, and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying them as gaming would be a mistake, as they serve legitimate economic purposes like price discovery and risk management. I urge the CFTC to recognize this distinction, especially in response to Questions 15-22 on listed activities. Also, on Questions 7-14 regarding public interest, I believe the benefits of democratized access and better information far outweigh the risks, as long as theres proper oversight.
Im not blind to concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues, as noted in Questions 1-6 on core principles. Banning or over-restricting these markets isnt the answer. It would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe for consumers. Instead, I support proportionate, targeted regulation that addresses specific risks without killing innovation. Regulated markets like Kalshi are proof that oversight can work. On Questions 29-32 about inside information, Id argue that informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits all participants, as long as existing laws against insider abuse are enforced.
Finally, the US should be a leader in financial innovation, not cede ground to other countries. Prediction markets are backed by solid academic research showing their value in aggregating information. Lets keep this progress alive with smart rules, not broad bans. I respectfully ask the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets that allow individuals and businesses like mine to participate in legal, safe venues while continuing to protect consumers.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Joseph Masri
