Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kieran Awall, and I'm a trader and investor based in New Jersey. Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, where I rely on event contracts not just as a source of income but also to hedge personal financial risks. These markets are a critical tool for me, and I believe they serve a valuable purpose for society as a whole.
Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. The prices on Kalshi reflect real-time, crowd-sourced information that I cant find anywhere else. This isnt gambling, despite what some might claim. Trading on these platforms requires research, analysis, and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. For me, its also about hedging real risks. Whether its an election outcome that could impact my taxes or a Federal Reserve decision that affects my investments, these contracts help me manage uncertainty in a way that traditional markets sometimes cant.
Im particularly concerned about the idea of banning or over-restricting prediction markets. Doing so would likely push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier for traders like me and harder for the CFTC to oversee. Instead of broad categorical bans, I urge you to focus on proportionate, targeted regulation. The CFTC already has robust tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can be adapted here without shutting down an entire industry.
On the topic of informed trading, I believe it actually improves price discovery and benefits all participants. Addressing Question 29 from your ANPR, I think traders with better information make the market more accurate, which helps everyone, not just those trading. Banning markets to stop a few bad actors would punish honest participants like me and undermine the public good these platforms provide.
I ask that you craft rules that allow prediction markets to thrive under fair oversight. Please dont let overregulation or outright bans stifle a tool thats both innovative and useful. Im happy to provide more details on my experiences if it would help. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Kieran Awall
