Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Vincent Chen, and I'm just an everyday citizen from New Jersey writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately rather than imposing broad restrictions.
I first got into prediction markets because I was frustrated with how often polls and pundits get things wrong. Whether it's elections or economic indicators, the forecasts on these markets have consistently been more accurate than anything I see on TV or online. That kind of information isn't just useful for traders; it helps everyone make better decisions. I also appreciate that platforms like Kalshi give regular folks like me a chance to participate. If only big institutions could trade, all that valuable insight would stay locked away from the public. Plus, these markets aren't gambling, in my view. They require research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. I've used them to hedge personal risks, like betting on election outcomes that could impact my taxes or small business costs. It's a practical tool, not a game.
I'm also concerned about the alternative if the CFTC over-regulates or bans these markets. Right now, Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight, which makes me feel safe trading there. If restrictions push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, that safety disappears. The US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing the advantage to other countries. On issues like insider trading or manipulation, I trust the CFTC already has strong tools to handle bad actors. I've read about the laws banning federal employees from trading on nonpublic info, and the CFTC's existing powers to stop market manipulation. Use those tools instead of punishing everyone with broad bans.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address a few. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets strike the right balance by fostering innovation while keeping oversight in place. On Question 29, regarding informed traders, I believe they improve price discovery, which benefits all of us by making the market's predictions sharper. And on Question 15, about defining gaming, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging and information aggregation.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate, targeted rules for prediction markets rather than categorical restrictions. These markets are a powerful tool for everyday people like me, and with the right oversight, they can thrive safely. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Vincent Chen
