Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andrew Mace, and I'm an everyday citizen from North Carolina writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their continued operation under fair, well-thought-out regulation by the CFTC.
I first got interested in prediction markets during the last election cycle. I was frustrated with how often polls and pundits got things wrong, and I found that platforms like Kalshi gave me a clearer picture of what might actually happen. The forecasts on these markets have consistently been more accurate than traditional sources, and I think that's valuable for everyone, not just traders. It helps regular folks like me make sense of public events, whether it's an election or a big policy decision. Plus, I've used these markets to hedge personal risks, like potential tax changes that could hit my budget hard. It's a practical tool, not a game.
What I appreciate most is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms under CFTC oversight, like Kalshi, are transparent and safe compared to unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts prediction markets, I worry that activity will just move to those sketchy sites where there's no consumer protection at all. I'd much rather see the US lead on financial innovation and keep these markets here, under proper rules, instead of ceding ground to other countries.
I also want to address some concerns I've heard. I know theres worry about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other derivatives markets. Use those same tools here. Banning broad categories of event contracts or calling them "gaming" feels like overreach to me. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like hedging and price discovery, and informed trading actually makes the forecasts better for everyone. I'm particularly drawn to Questions 7 and 29 in your ANPR, about balancing innovation with protection and the role of informed traders. I think proportionate, targeted rules can address specific risks without shutting down the whole market.
I urge you to support prediction markets with regulation thats fair and focused. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep them safe and accessible for people like me who find real value in them. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Andrew Mace
