Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eshbir Sharma, and Im a student from Ohio writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a lawyer or a financial expert, but Im someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, and Ive seen firsthand how valuable these markets can be. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets rather than imposing heavy restrictions or outright bans.
As a student, Im always trying to make sense of the world around me, whether its elections, policy changes, or big public events. Prediction markets give me information that I cant find anywhere else. Ive noticed their forecasts are often way more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on market prices on Kalshi to cut through the noise of biased reporting and get a clearer picture of what might happen. That kind of insight isnt just useful for me, its good for everyone who wants to understand whats going on. These markets aggregate knowledge in a way nothing else does.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Trading on a platform like Kalshi feels fair because its not a casino or a game of chance. I use my research and judgment, just like I would for any other investment. Its a level playing field, unlike some other financial spaces where big institutions seem to have all the advantages. To me, event contracts arent gambling, they serve a real purpose by letting people like me hedge uncertainty or express a view on the future. Calling this gaming doesnt make sense when it takes skill and analysis.
Im also worried about what happens if regulation goes too far. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people wont just stop trading, theyll move to unregulated offshore platforms that are far less safe. Id much rather trade on a CFTC-regulated site like Kalshi where there are consumer protections in place. Addressing Questions 7 and 14 from your ANPR, I believe the public interest is best served by balancing innovation with protection through sensible rules, not by pushing activity into shadowy corners of the internet.
Finally, on Questions 29 and 30 about insider trading and manipulation, I think the CFTC already has strong tools to handle these issues. Laws against insider trading apply to federal employees and others with nonpublic information, and your existing authority lets you crack down on anyone trying to rig the market. Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like overkill when you can target the actual problems instead.
I hope the CFTC will regulate prediction markets in a way that keeps them accessible and safe for regular people like me. Please dont let heavy-handed rules shut down something so useful. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Eshbir Sharma
