Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Blake Tarbox, and I'm a student from South Carolina. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets are valuable and worth supporting. I want to explain why they matter to me and why I think the CFTC should encourage their growth with fair rules, not heavy restrictions.
As a student, I find prediction markets to be an incredible tool for learning about the world. Trading on platforms like Kalshi has helped me understand how to research and analyze real-world events, from elections to economic indicators. The prices on these markets often give more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. Ive seen this firsthand during election cycles, where the odds on prediction markets cut through the noise and helped me make sense of what might actually happen. This isn't just useful for me; it's valuable for anyone trying to understand public events, including journalists and policymakers.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. These platforms aren't gambling. They require judgment and study, much like trading stocks or commodities. Banning or over-regulating them would take away an opportunity for regular people like me to engage with financial tools that big institutions already use. Plus, keeping these markets regulated in the US ensures theyre safe and transparent. If we push them offshore with harsh rules, people will still trade, just in riskier, unregulated spaces. I think the US should lead in financial innovation, not let other countries take the reins. We have the chance to set a global standard for how these markets work, and I hope we take it.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve the public by providing unique information and democratizing access to financial tools. On Question 29, about inside information, I acknowledge the concern but think the answer is enforcing existing laws against insider trading, not banning entire markets. The CFTC already has the power to tackle manipulation and fraud. Use those tools instead of punishing everyone.
I worry that over-restricting prediction markets will stifle something useful and innovative. I'm not blind to the risks, but I think proportionate regulation can handle them without shutting things down. Please support rules that let prediction markets grow while addressing specific concerns like fraud or manipulation. Dont let fear of a few bad actors take away a resource that benefits so many.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Blake Tarbox
