Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Samir Sosa, and I'm a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that encourage innovation while addressing real risks.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for getting information that I just can't find anywhere else. For elections and major public events, the forecasts on these platforms have consistently been more accurate than polls or TV pundits. As someone who cares about understanding what's really going on, whether it's a presidential race or a policy decision, I rely on these markets to cut through the noise. This isn't just helpful for traders like me; it benefits everyone when better information is out there for the public, journalists, and even policymakers to see.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. Trading on these markets isn't a game of chance. It takes research, thought, and judgment about real-world events, much like investing in stocks or commodities. These contracts serve a real economic purpose, like helping people hedge against uncertainty. Labeling them as "gaming" feels unfair and misses the point of why they exist. I'm particularly drawn to Questions 15 and 16 in the ANPR, where you ask about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. I urge you to recognize event contracts as tools for price discovery and risk management, not as gambling.
Another big concern for me is safety. I trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi because I trust that there are rules in place to protect users. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, I worry that activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight. Thats worse for everyone. On this point, I think Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection is key. Regulation should keep markets safe without choking off access for regular people like me.
Lastly, I believe the US has a chance to lead the world in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or shut down prediction markets, other countries will step in and take the lead. We shouldn't let that happen. I hope the CFTC considers this in Questions 33 to 40, where you discuss costs and benefits. Let's not burden small players or innovators with rules that push them out of the game.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Address specific risks like manipulation or insider trading with targeted rules, but please don't ban or overly restrict these valuable tools. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Samir Sosa
