Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Christian Robinson, and I'm a software engineer from Georgia. Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I've seen firsthand how valuable these markets are, and I believe the CFTC should regulate them proportionately rather than impose overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about public events, especially elections. As a tech professional, Im used to digging into data and analyzing trends, and Ive found that prediction markets consistently outperform polls and pundits when it comes to forecasting outcomes. The prices on these platforms reflect real-time, crowd-sourced wisdom that you just cant get from traditional sources. For instance, during the last election cycle, I relied on Kalshis market odds to cut through the noise of biased reporting and endless talking heads. Those prices gave me a clearer picture of what was likely to happen, and they were right when many polls were off. This isnt just useful for me; its a public good when better information is out there for everyone.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues to watch. But the answer isnt shutting down these markets. Laws already exist to stop federal employees or anyone else from trading on nonpublic info, and the CFTC already has the power to crack down on manipulation in any regulated market. Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would punish the rest of us who use them responsibly. Itd be like closing the stock market over insider trading scandals. Instead, focus on enforcing the rules youve got.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think prediction markets are a clear case of innovation that benefits the public through better forecasting, as long as basic safeguards are in place. And on Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly believe these arent gambling. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Its about understanding the world, not rolling dice.
Prediction markets give regular people like me a chance to engage with and understand major events in a way thats grounded in real stakes. They democratize access to information and let everyday traders contribute to more accurate forecasts. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without stifling this valuable tool. Please dont let overbroad restrictions or categorical bans push this activity offshore or underground.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Christian Robinson
