Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Benjamin Hagan, and I'm a student and academic based in Pennsylvania with a passion for math and statistics. I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand how these markets offer unique opportunities for average citizens like me to participate in the economy and apply analytical skills to real-world events.
I got into prediction markets because they let me use my background in statistics to make informed trades on everything from election outcomes to economic indicators. The data and forecasts these markets produce often beat out polls or pundits, which is invaluable not just for traders but for anyone trying to understand whats likely to happen next. Beyond that, prediction markets lower the barrier to entry for economic participation. Theyre not just for big institutions; they give regular people a chance to hedge personal risks, like how a policy change might impact my future job prospects or finances as a student. I dont see this as gambling. Its about research and judgment, much like trading stocks, and classifying event contracts as "gaming" ignores their legitimate economic purpose.
Im also concerned about what happens if these markets are over-restricted or banned. Id rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, where there are consumer protections, than be pushed to unregulated offshore sites with no oversight. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. I believe those can be adapted here without resorting to broad bans. Plus, informed trading actually helps price discovery, making better information available to everyone, from policymakers to the public.
Id like to address a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Questions 7-14 under Public Interest, I think prediction markets strike a crucial balance between innovation and protection when regulated properly. Theyre a tool for risk management and forecasting, not a game. For Questions 29-32 on Inside Information, I believe informed traders improve market accuracy, and existing laws already prohibit misuse of nonpublic information. Finally, on Questions 15-22 about Listed Activities, I urge the CFTC to avoid labeling these contracts as gaming and instead focus on their economic utility. The U.S. should lead in financial innovation, not cede ground to other countries by over-restricting a promising field.
I appreciate the CFTCs effort to gather input and ensure consumer safety. My ask is simple: please support proportionate, targeted regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Lets keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative under your oversight.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Benjamin Hagan
