Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Keenan Kaya, and I'm a trader and investor from Hawaii. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I want to share why I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
For me, Kalshi has been a game-changer. It's helped me understand and navigate financial risks in a way that no other tool has. Whether it's hedging against potential policy changes that could impact my investments or gauging the likelihood of economic events that affect my personal finances, having access to a regulated platform like Kalshi gives me a real edge. I can research, analyze, and make informed decisions based on market prices that often seem more accurate than polls or pundits. It's not just about making trades; it's about getting information I can't find anywhere else.
What really stands out to me is the safety of trading on a regulated platform compared to the offshore alternatives I've seen. Before finding Kalshi, I looked into some of those unregulated sites, and honestly, they felt risky and unreliable. There was no oversight, no clear rules, and I worried about whether my money was even safe. With a CFTC-registered platform like Kalshi, I know there's accountability. If something goes wrong, there are protections in place. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets in the US would only push people like me toward those shady offshore options, and I don't think that's the outcome anyone wants.
I also want to address some concerns I've heard, especially around manipulation or insider trading, which I believe relate to Questions 29-32 in your ANPR about inside information. I get why this is a worry, but I don't think the answer is shutting down these markets. The CFTC already has laws and tools to go after bad actors, whether it's insider trading or market manipulation. Use those. Punishing everyone by restricting access to prediction markets doesn't solve the problem; it just takes away a valuable tool from honest traders like me.
I'm also drawn to Questions 7-14 on public interest. I believe prediction markets serve a real purpose for society, not just for traders. They help aggregate information and provide insights that benefit everyone, from small investors to policymakers. Hedging risks through these markets isn't gambling; it's a practical way to manage uncertainty, much like any other investment strategy.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Platforms like Kalshi are safe, innovative, and useful, and they keep activity here in the US under proper oversight. Let's not drive this market offshore where there are no rules. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Keenan Kaya
