Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Lucas Roberts, and I'm a regular citizen from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on prediction markets like Kalshi, and I strongly support well-regulated markets that allow everyday people like me to participate in a safe, legal way. I'm not a financial expert or a big investor, just someone who sees real value in these platforms for both personal use and broader society.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for hedging risks that affect my personal finances. For example, I run a small side business selling handmade goods online, and election outcomes or policy changes can directly impact shipping costs or taxes I have to pay. Trading on Kalshi lets me offset some of that uncertainty by putting a little money on outcomes that might hurt my bottom line. It's not gambling to me; it's a practical tool, much like how someone might invest in stocks to balance out risks. Plus, the prices on these markets often give me insights I can't find in news or polls. They're a unique source of information that helps me make better decisions.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those are valid issues. But I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to address bad actors without banning or over-restricting these markets. What worries me most is that if prediction markets are overly limited here in the US, people like me will just turn to unregulated offshore platforms. I've seen those sites out there, and they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as a regulated market like Kalshi. Banning or heavily restricting domestic markets won't stop the activity; it'll just push it to places where theres no oversight at all. That seems like the opposite of protecting consumers.
I want to specifically address questions 7 and 8 from the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection and the public interest. I think allowing regulated prediction markets strikes that balance. They let regular folks participate in a fair system while giving the CFTC the ability to monitor and enforce rules. Shutting down access would cut off the benefits of price discovery and hedging for people like me, while driving activity to riskier corners of the internet.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban broad categories of contracts or make it impossible for everyday citizens to take part. Focus on targeted rules to stop manipulation and keep things fair. Regulated markets are the safest option for everyone, and I hope the CFTC will prioritize keeping them accessible.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Lucas Roberts
