Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Camren Hinton, and I'm just a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for folks like me and for society as a whole. I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
I first stumbled across prediction markets a couple of years ago when I was trying to get a better sense of some national events that affect my life, like election outcomes and economic policies. The information I found on platforms like Kalshi was clearer and often more accurate than what I saw in news articles or polls. It felt like a tool that cuts through the noise, giving me a real picture of what might happen. That kind of price discovery isn't just helpful for traders. It's useful for anyone trying to make informed decisions, whether it's planning for the future or just understanding the world better. I think this public benefit is something worth protecting.
What really matters to me is that regulated markets, like Kalshi operating under CFTC oversight, are a much safer option compared to unregulated offshore platforms. I've seen ads for some of those other sites, and they look sketchy. No oversight, no accountability. If we push prediction markets out of the US or make them too hard to operate legally, people like me won't stop looking for this kind of information. We'll just end up on platforms with no rules, no protections, and probably a higher risk of fraud. Regulation keeps things transparent and safe, and I'd rather see the CFTC set clear, fair rules than drive this activity underground.
I'm also aware of some of the concerns, like the risk of manipulation or insider trading. I get that those are real issues, but I don't think the answer is banning or over-restricting these markets. The CFTC already has tools to go after bad actors in other financial markets, and those should work here too. Specifically, in response to questions 29 through 32 in the ANPR about inside information, I believe the focus should be on enforcing existing laws against insider trading rather than shutting down entire markets because of a few potential bad apples.
I also think about questions 7 through 14 on public interest. Prediction markets offer a unique way to aggregate information that benefits everyone, not just traders. Balancing that innovation with consumer protection makes sense, but heavy-handed restrictions would kill the good along with the bad.
I'm just one voice from Texas, but I hope you'll consider how regulated prediction markets can help regular people like me access better information while keeping things safe and fair. Please support rules that allow these markets to operate with proper oversight, not bans or excessive limits.
Sincerely,
Camren Hinton
