Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Fatima Musa, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced approach that supports innovation while addressing real risks.
As a trader, I rely on prediction markets for accurate forecasting of elections and other public events. The data I get from these platforms often cuts through the noise of polls and pundits, giving me a clearer picture of what might happen. This isn't just useful for my trades; it helps me make better-informed decisions in my personal and financial life. Beyond that, prediction markets let me hedge real risks. For example, Ive used them to offset potential financial impacts from policy changes tied to election outcomes that could affect my investments. This kind of hedging isn't gambling. Its a practical tool, much like any other derivative market, and its valuable for individuals and businesses alike.
I also want to highlight that regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. I've seen how Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight with clear rules and transparency. If prediction markets are overly restricted or banned, people will just turn to offshore sites with no protections. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. On top of that, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation and insider trading. These markets dont need heavy-handed bans; they need the existing rules to be enforced.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think the CFTC can achieve this by focusing on targeted oversight rather than broad prohibitions. Also, in response to Question 11 on price discovery, I strongly believe prediction markets provide better information for public decision-making. They aggregate insights from many participants, which often leads to more accurate outcomes than traditional methods.
Im not blind to the concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but shutting down these markets isnt the answer. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few bad actors makes no sense. Instead, use the authority you already have to go after those who break the rules. Prediction markets are a powerful tool for forecasting and risk management, and with the right regulation, they can thrive safely.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid overly restrictive measures or outright bans.
Sincerely,
Fatima Musa
