Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brandon Margio, and I'm a trader and investor based in Illinois. I actively trade on prediction markets like Kalshi, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've seen firsthand how these markets provide unique value, and I believe the CFTC should regulate them proportionately without imposing overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
As a trader, I rely on prediction markets for accurate forecasting of elections and other public events. The prices on platforms like Kalshi often cut through the noise of polls and pundits, giving me a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. This isn't just useful for me; it helps everyone by improving public decision-making and price discovery. Beyond that, I use these markets to hedge real financial risks. For instance, I've traded contracts tied to economic indicators that affect my investments, helping me manage uncertainty in a way traditional markets don't always allow. These aren't games or gambling. They take research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities, and they serve legitimate economic purposes.
I'm also concerned about what happens if these markets are over-restricted or banned. I've seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and they're far riskier than a regulated market like Kalshi. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me won't stop trading; we'll just get pushed to less safe venues. Regulation should protect consumers by keeping activity in the US under your oversight, not driving it overseas. On a related note, I believe the US should be leading in financial innovation. We shouldn't cede this space to other countries by making it too hard for legitimate platforms to operate here.
Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I think the balance between innovation and consumer protection lies in targeted rules, not broad prohibitions. And on Topic Area E about inside information (Questions 29-32), I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits all participants, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced. There's no need to ban entire markets to address a few bad actors when you already have tools to tackle manipulation.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep them accessible to regular traders like me under a fair, transparent framework that protects consumers and maintains US leadership in this innovative space. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Brandon Margio
