Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mason Miller, and I'm a trader and investor based in Utah. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I want to share why these markets matter to me and why the CFTC should regulate them proportionately rather than imposing overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
As a trader, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information that you just can't get from polls or pundits. I've relied on platforms like Kalshi to gauge election outcomes and other public events, and time and again, their forecasts have proven more accurate than traditional sources. This isn't just useful for me as a trader; it helps everyone, from policymakers to everyday citizens, make better-informed decisions. Beyond forecasting, these markets let me hedge real financial risks. For instance, I've used them to offset uncertainties around policy changes that could impact my investments or personal finances. This hedging isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities, and it serves a legitimate economic purpose.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, activity will just move to less secure venues where consumer protections are nonexistent. I believe the US should lead in financial innovation, not cede ground to other countries. Regulated markets ensure transparency and accountability, and the CFTC already has strong tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives. Those same tools can work here without resorting to broad categorical bans. Informed trading, far from being a problem, actually improves price discovery and benefits all participants.
Regarding some specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few points. On Questions 7-14 about public interest, I believe prediction markets balance innovation with consumer protection by providing valuable data and hedging opportunities while operating under strict oversight on registered platforms. For Questions 15-22 on listed activities, I urge the CFTC not to classify event contracts as gaming. They serve real economic purposes, distinct from gambling. And on Questions 29-32 about inside information, I think informed traders enhance market accuracy, and existing laws already address insider trading by federal officials or others.
I'm not blind to the risks, like potential manipulation or misuse. But banning or over-restricting these markets punishes honest participants like me and pushes activity to shadier corners of the internet. Instead, I ask the CFTC to adopt targeted, proportionate regulations that address specific concerns while allowing prediction markets to thrive. Let's keep the US at the forefront of financial innovation and protect consumers through smart oversight.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mason Miller
