Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Therence Davis, and I'm just an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big investor, just someone who likes predicting things and seeing value come from that. I'm pretty new to prediction markets, but I strongly support them being regulated in a fair way, and I hope my perspective is helpful as you consider how to move forward.
I believe prediction markets are valuable for a lot of reasons. For one, they often give better forecasts than polls or pundits. I've seen how these markets can predict election outcomes or economic shifts more accurately than so-called experts on TV. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders like me, but for everyone, including people making public decisions. Also, I don't think these event contracts are gambling at all. They serve real purposes, like discovering prices and helping people understand what's likely to happen. It's about research and judgment, not luck. Plus, being able to participate in a legal, regulated market feels like a freedom I should have as a citizen, as long as it's done responsibly.
I'm really concerned about what happens if these markets get banned or over-restricted. From what I've read, platforms like Kalshi, which are regulated by the CFTC, are much safer than unregulated offshore sites. If we push too hard with rules or outright bans, people will just go to those sketchy platforms instead. That seems like the opposite of protecting anyone. I also think the US should be leading the way on financial innovation. Why let other countries take the lead when we can set the standard with smart, fair rules?
I noticed a few of your questions in the ANPR that relate to my thoughts. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think proportionate regulation is the way to go. Don't ban whole categories of contracts, just target the specific risks like manipulation. And on Question 29, about informed trading, I believe traders with good information actually help make prices more accurate, which benefits everyone in the market, not just themselves.
I hope you'll consider my view as someone who's new to this but sees the potential. Please support prediction markets with targeted, fair regulation instead of heavy-handed restrictions that could push activity offshore or stifle something useful. I'm excited to keep learning about these markets and participating in a legal, safe way.
Thank you for taking the time to read this.
Sincerely,
Therence Davis
