Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is David Voci, and I'm an everyday citizen from Utah writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe strongly that well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on how the CFTC approaches this growing space.
I rely on prediction markets for information you just can't find anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or a major public event, the forecasts on these platforms have consistently been more accurate than polls or TV pundits. That kind of insight helps me make better decisions, and I know it benefits others too, from journalists to policymakers. It's not just about trading; it's about having access to solid data. Beyond that, these markets let regular folks like me participate in a system that would otherwise be locked up by big institutions. Keeping that access open feels fair and honestly makes the prices more reliable since more voices are in the mix.
I also see real economic purpose in event contracts. They're not gambling, not by a long shot. Trading on these markets takes research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. I use them to hedge risks that hit close to home, like how an election might affect my taxes or how a policy change could impact costs I deal with. Classifying this as "gaming" would be a mistake; it's a legitimate tool for managing uncertainty. On that note, I'm glad to trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people will just turn to offshore, unregulated sites that are far less safe. I'd much rather see the US lead in financial innovation than push this activity overseas where there's no oversight.
I'm aware of concerns like insider trading or manipulation, and I get why those are issues. But the CFTC already has laws and tools to tackle bad actors. Punishing everyone by shutting down or over-regulating prediction markets doesn't solve the problem; it just limits the good that comes from them. Plus, informed trading often improves price discovery, which helps all of us get better information. I think this ties directly to some of your questions, like numbers 7 and 29, on balancing innovation with protection and the role of informed traders in markets.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Let's keep the US at the forefront of this space and ensure regular people like me can keep benefiting from these tools.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
David Voci
