Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ian Nicholas, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been following this issue because I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets are valuable for people like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with fair, proportionate rules instead of overly restrictive bans or limits.
I started trading on Kalshi a while back because I wanted a way to engage with events that impact my life, like economic policies or election outcomes. It's not just a hobby; it's a way to understand the world better and even hedge against uncertainties that affect my budget. Honestly, the information I get from prediction market prices often feels more reliable than what I hear from pundits or see in polls. It's a tool that helps regular people like me make sense of complex issues, and I think that's a benefit to society as a whole, not just to traders.
One thing I'm really concerned about is my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which makes me feel safe knowing there are rules and protections in place. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, I worry that activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no accountability. I've read about some of those sites, and they don't have the transparency or safeguards that a regulated market offers. Pushing trading overseas doesn't solve problems; it makes them worse by taking away protections for American users like me.
I also believe event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real purposes, like helping me gauge risks and make informed decisions. Trading on these markets takes research and thought, much like investing in stocks. Labeling them as "gaming" feels unfair and misses the point of their economic value. On top of that, I think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard, other countries will step in and take the lead, and we'll lose out on the benefits of these markets.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address Question 8 under Public Interest. I believe prediction markets do serve the public good by providing unique insights and democratizing access to information, and the CFTC should weigh that heavily. Also, on Question 15 under Listed Activities, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming but to recognize their legitimate role in price discovery and risk management.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to craft rules that support regulated prediction markets while addressing specific risks with targeted measures. Please don't ban or over-restrict these platforms. They matter to people like me, and with the right oversight, they can thrive safely.
Sincerely,
Ian Nicholas
