Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Hunter Grulke, and I'm a student from Virginia with a strong interest in markets and economics. I actively trade in the stock market and have found prediction markets, like Kalshi, to be an invaluable tool for gaining real-time insights into events that impact my trades. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my support for proportionate, well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
As a student and trader, I rely on platforms like Kalshi to access information that I can't get from traditional polls or pundits. The odds and forecasts on these markets are often more accurate, blending expert opinions with hard data. This helps me make better decisions, whether I'm tracking election outcomes that could affect economic policy or gauging real-time events that influence stock prices. It's not just useful for me; this kind of price discovery benefits everyone by providing clearer signals about the future. I've noticed other platforms, like Robinhood, starting to adopt similar tools, showing how prediction markets are becoming a vital part of how investors understand the economy.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like helping individuals and businesses hedge against risks. For example, I can hedge against policy changes that might impact my investments or personal finances. This isn't a game; it takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks. Classifying these contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, would be a mistake and overlooks their legitimate value.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, as raised in Questions 29-32. But the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can work here. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets won't solve bad behavior; it will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe. Regulated markets like Kalshi are transparent and accountable, and I'd much rather trade there than on some sketchy foreign site.
On the public interest front, as covered in Questions 7-14, I believe prediction markets improve decision-making for everyone. They give ordinary people like me a chance to participate in understanding and forecasting major events. Plus, informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, benefiting the whole market. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not falling behind other countries where these markets are already legal and regulated. We've been at a standstill for too long, and prediction markets are a fresh, powerful tool that can keep us at the forefront.
I urge the CFTC to adopt targeted, proportionate regulations rather than broad bans or restrictions. Use the authority you have to tackle specific risks without shutting down an entire industry that offers so much value. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Hunter Grulke
