Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jason Roberts, and I'm a software engineer from Florida. I work in tech, building programs that interact with platforms like Kalshi through their API, focusing on markets such as weather and cryptocurrency price predictions where insider manipulation is nearly impossible. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516).
I believe prediction markets are incredibly valuable, both for me personally and for society at large. As a developer, I rely on the data these markets provide for accurate forecasting of events like elections or economic shifts. The prices often reflect insights you can't find in polls or news commentary. Beyond that, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, a sudden change in regulatory policy or a major economic event can impact my freelance tech projects, and trading on event contracts helps me offset some of that uncertainty. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and real-world judgment, just like any other investment.
Im particularly concerned with the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the U.S. clamps down too hard, people like me will be pushed to less secure venues with no protections. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. Instead, I think the CFTC should focus on using the robust tools it already has to combat manipulation and insider trading. These are already illegal, and the agency has the authority to enforce against bad actors without punishing the rest of us.
On specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few points. Regarding Question 15 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly believe event contracts serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery, not gambling. They shouldn't be lumped in with betting. On Question 29 about inside information, I think informed trading often improves price accuracy and benefits all participants by reflecting better data. The focus should be on enforcing existing laws against misuse of nonpublic information, not broad restrictions. Finally, on Question 7 about balancing innovation and protection, I believe the U.S. should lead in financial innovation. We can't afford to cede this space to other countries by over-regulating.
Prediction markets give regular people like me a chance to participate in a fair, regulated system. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without banning or overly restricting these valuable tools. Lets keep innovation and access alive in the U.S.
Sincerely,
Jason Roberts
