Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Devon Palmer, and I'm a trader and investor based in Florida. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that support their growth rather than restrict them.
As someone who spends a lot of time analyzing markets, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information thats just not available anywhere else. Ive traded on contracts tied to election outcomes and other public events, and the prices on these platforms have consistently been more accurate than polls or pundit predictions. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on Kalshis market data to get a clearer picture of what might happen, and it cut through the noise of biased news and shaky surveys. This isnt just helpful for traders like me; its valuable for anyone trying to understand the likelihood of major events, from journalists to policymakers.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that those are real issues. But the answer isnt to ban or overly restrict these markets. Laws already exist to stop federal employees or others from trading on nonpublic information, and the CFTC already has the power to crack down on manipulation in any regulated market. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would be like closing the stock market because of insider trading. It punishes everyone else whos using the platform legitimately. Plus, pushing these markets offshore to unregulated spaces would only make things worse.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. Regarding Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think prediction markets are a clear win for innovation. They give regular people like me a chance to participate in financial tools that big institutions have always had access to. And for Question 11 on price discovery, I can say from experience that these markets do a better job aggregating information than most other sources. The CFTC should focus on targeted rules to address risks, not broad restrictions.
Prediction markets arent gambling. They take research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation that lets these markets thrive while keeping them safe and fair for everyone.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Devon Palmer
