Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Daniel Dancourt, and I'm a student from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm relatively new to prediction markets, but I've been following their growth with interest, especially as someone who values accurate information about elections and public events. I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope the CFTC will create a framework that allows them to thrive while addressing real concerns.
As a student, I spend a lot of time studying how data and public opinion shape events like elections or policy decisions. I've noticed that prediction markets often provide insights that polls and pundits miss. Their prices reflect what people actually think, based on real stakes, and that's information I can't get anywhere else. This isn't just useful for traders; it helps everyone, from journalists to regular citizens like me, better understand what's likely to happen. I believe this forecasting value is a public good worth protecting.
I'm also aware of the risks, like potential manipulation or insider trading. But I don't think the answer is to ban or overly restrict these markets. The CFTC already has tools to address bad actors, and those should be enforced rather than punishing everyone by shutting down legitimate platforms. More importantly, regulated markets like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore platforms. If we push prediction markets out of the U.S. with harsh rules, people will just trade on less secure sites with no protections. That seems like the opposite of consumer safety to me.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC should prioritize rules that encourage innovation while targeting specific risks, not broad bans. And on Question 14, about the public interest, I believe prediction markets serve a clear public benefit by improving forecasting for events that impact us all. They give ordinary people a chance to participate in discovering truth, not just big institutions.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't let fear of a few bad actors lead to over-restrictive rules that could kill this valuable tool. Focus on strong oversight of registered platforms and enforcement of existing laws against manipulation and insider trading. That way, students like me, and the broader public, can benefit from the unique insights these markets provide.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Daniel Dancourt
